Official statusNo official Baja watch/warning

Monitoring 2 active systems

2 active systems: Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.NHC is monitoring 2 systems in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys. BajaStorms is following official updates for each system.

Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys are now tracked separately. The current NHC outlook is monitoring 2 other areas for possible development. Across those areas, the highest formation chances are near 0% through 48 hours and 70% through seven days.

NHC outlook updated: Sep 20, 11:00 PM GMT-7

No official Baja watch/warning

Tropical Storm Polo

40mphStrengthening

Max sustained winds

Movement: ENE 5 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb

Distance to BCS

Current: 640 mi
Closest observed: 9/20/26 · 640 mi
Closest forecast: 9/25/26 · 235 mi

Polo advisory: Sep 20, 8:00 PM GMT-7

View details →

No official Baja watch/warning

Tropical Storm Odalys

50mphSteady

Max sustained winds

Movement: NW 13 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

Distance to BCS

Current: 1298 mi
Closest observed: 9/20/26 · 1230 mi
Closest forecast: 9/25/26 · 825 mi

Odalys advisory: Sep 20, 8:00 PM GMT-7

View details →

Highest current classification: tropical storm. Understand storm classifications.Get storm alerts for my area

BCS Storm Tracker

DepressionTropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurricane

Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind and pressure. Visualization by BajaStorms.

What changed since the last update

BajaStorms is monitoring each active system independently.

Situation worsening

Polo strengthened from a tropical depression to a tropical storm.

Situation steady

Odalys held steady at 50 mph.

Official Cone & Model Guidance

Polo tracking

Official NHC forecast cone and track for Polo; issue time shown in image — NHC Forecast ConeGraphic updated: —

Interactive GuidanceInteractive Model Guidance TracksSep 20, 11:00 PM GMT-7

BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗

Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast

Odalys tracking

Official NHC forecast cone and track for Odalys; issue time shown in image — NHC Forecast ConeGraphic updated: —

Interactive GuidanceInteractive Model Guidance TracksSep 20, 11:00 PM GMT-7

BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗

Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast

Local Monitoring (tap cards)(click cards)

Cabo San Lucas

Official monitoring

82°Clear sky96° · 81°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

San José del Cabo

Official monitoring

81°Clear sky93° · 78°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Todos Santos

Official monitoring

78°Partly cloudy89° · 78°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

La Paz

Official monitoring

81°Clear sky94° · 79°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

East CapeLos Barriles

Official monitoring

83°Overcast93° · 82°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Loreto

Official monitoring

87°Clear sky98° · 81°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

MulegéBahía Concepción

Official monitoring

84°Clear sky94° · 80°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Santa Rosalía

Official monitoring

82°Clear sky93° · 79°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Ciudad Constitución

Official monitoring

79°Clear sky91° · 77°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Magdalena BayPuerto San Carlos

Official monitoring

79°Clear sky87° · 78°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Bahía TortugasPacific Northwest

Official monitoring

72°Overcast78° · 69°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Guerrero Negro

Official monitoring

70°Overcast75° · 68°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

More BCS regions

MulegéBahía Concepción

Official monitoring

84°Clear sky94° · 80°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Santa Rosalía

Official monitoring

82°Clear sky93° · 79°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Ciudad Constitución

Official monitoring

79°Clear sky91° · 77°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Magdalena BayPuerto San Carlos

Official monitoring

79°Clear sky87° · 78°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Bahía TortugasPacific Northwest

Official monitoring

72°Overcast78° · 69°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Guerrero Negro

Official monitoring

70°Overcast75° · 68°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

BajaStorms organizes official storm, watch, and warning information. It does not issue independent weather warnings.

Weather by Open-Meteo and MET Norway

Satellite & Storm Maps

NOAA GOES-19 · GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Latest satelliteSource ↗

Latest satellite: Shows cloud structure across Baja and the Eastern Pacific. Use the loop to watch systems organize, weaken, or move closer to the region.

NOAA GOES-19 · Infrared - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — InfraredSource ↗

Infrared: Highlights the coldest cloud tops, which mark the strongest thunderstorms. Use the loop to see where storms build or weaken over recent hours.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific GeoColorSource ↗

Full Pacific GeoColor: Covers the wider eastern Pacific so distant tropical systems remain visible before they enter the tighter Baja sector.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific storm tops - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific storm topsSource ↗

Full Pacific storm tops: Combines visible and infrared detail across the full Pacific sector, making deep convection easier to spot far west of Baja.

Tropical Weather Outlook and Discussion

7-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

7-day outlook graphic unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

2-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

2-day tropical outlook satellite image unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion

The National Hurricane Center's full technical discussion of conditions across the eastern Pacific - tropical waves, convection, and any systems being watched. Issued several times daily.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Mexico & surrounding watersSource ↗

Satellite image unavailable - open the live viewer.

CICESE-UALPImage dated Jul 15, 2026

Warm water is the fuel for tropical storms. Hurricanes generally need sea-surface temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) to form and strengthen., so warmer water near Baja is worth watching.

Get Baja Storm Alerts

Stop checking the storm.BajaStorms will tell you when it changes.

Get clear email alerts when important official updates happen. No spam. No hype.

A heads-up when a system could affect Baja California Sur
Watch, warning, and advisory changes for your area
Plain-language summaries - not raw technical bulletins
Free, and you can unsubscribe at any time

We only use your contact details to send storm alerts. Unsubscribe anytime.

Sign-up form

Email address

Email updates

All storm updatesStart with Tropical Depression formation.Fewer storm updatesStart when a named Tropical Storm forms.

Named storms, hurricane category changes, and watches or warnings for your regions are always included.

Official SMN weather warningsEmail me official SMN weather warnings issued for Baja California Sur.This statewide warning preference is separate from your selected storm-alert regions.

Select regions

Confirmation required: After signing up, open the email from BajaStorms and click “Confirm email.” You will not receive storm alerts until you do.

Free for local businesses

Put a live Baja storm status on your website

Hotels, realtors, property managers, and marinas can embed a free, always-current BajaStorms status badge in one line of code. It updates itself and links your visitors to full maps and updates.

Get the free widget →

A quick note: BajaStorms is an independent information service, not an official weather or emergency agency. For official guidance during a storm, follow Protección Civil, SMN/CONAGUA, the NHC, and your local authorities.

Quick official links:

Protección Civil (BCS)SMN / CONAGUA - Avisos de ciclón tropical NOAA / National Hurricane Center (NHC)More official sources

Tropical Weather Discussion Source ↗

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 11.7N 126.6W at 20/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 123W and 127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 120W and 130W. Odalys is forecast to move northwestward for the next day or so, then turn eastward. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification, and Odalys is forecast to reach hurricane strength Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is centered near 14.9N 104.9W at 20/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N between 101W and 106W. The system is forecast to turn toward the east in the next 12-24 hours while intensifying, reaching hurricane intensity Mon night. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move closer to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later this week. Swell generated from the system will start to impact the SW coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco by mid week, then to Baja California sur by the end of the week. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85/86W, moving westward near 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N104W to 09N120W. It resumes west of Odalys near 12N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N east of 90W, from 03N to 11N between 92W and 100W, from 06N to 14N between 106W and 114W, and from 03N to 17N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Depression Seventeen-E, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, aside from conditions associated with Tropical Depression Seventeen-E, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of TD Seventeen-E. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu night across the offshores. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. Outside of Odalys and Seventeen-E, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters N of the monsoon trough to near 24N and west of 132W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, Odalys will move to 12.8N 127.8W Mon morning, 14.0N 129.0W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.8N 129.6W Tue morning, 15.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 15.0N 128.7W Wed morning, and 15.1N 127.7W Wed afternoon. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to near 15.9N 126.0W Thu afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail.

NOAA NHCIssued 2205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026

Tropical Weather Outlook Source ↗

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E): Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by that time to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

NOAA NHCIssued 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026