No official watch/warning
Tropical Storm Vance
No official watch or warning is in effect in the current NHC data.
Tropical Storm Vance has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is moving WNW at 5 mph. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane by the weekend.
Vance advisory updated:
Key Facts
- Type
- Tropical Storm
- Max sustained wind
- 65 mph
- Min pressure
- 994 mb
- Movement
- WNW 5 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 1049 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 479 mi
- Type
- Tropical Storm
- Max sustained wind
- 65 mph
- Min pressure
- 994 mb
- Movement
- WNW 5 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 1049 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 479 mi
Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.
Vance Storm Tracker
DepressionTropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurricane
Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS windNOAA/NESDIS satellite imagery. Visualization by BajaStorms.
Official Graphics
Tap a button to compare possible storm paths.Click a track or its button to highlight it and compare the forecasts.Models offer different views of the storm’s future path.Selected global and hurricane models, plus combined forecasts, show possible storm paths.
Advisory Timeline
Advisory #6
Vance continues to strengthen.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 101.5W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 101.5 West. Vance is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory #5
Vance getting stronger well south of Mexico.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE GETTING STRONGER WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was re-positioned to near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.0 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwest to north-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Satellite imagery indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory #4
Vance is strengthening as it moves westward.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.5W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.5 West. Vance is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Gibbs NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory #3
Vance strengthens slightly. Forecast to rapidly intensify.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...VANCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 100.7W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 100.7 West. Vance is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and is expected to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory #2
Depression strengthens into tropical storm Vance. Forecast to rapidly intensify.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 99.8W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 99.8 West. Vance is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a turn toward the northwest then north-northwest is expected over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory #1
Tropical depression forms south of southern Mexico. Forecast to rapidly intensify.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 99.3W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 99.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general slow forward motion with a turn towards the northwest then north-northwest is expected the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC