Official statusNo official watch/warning

Monitoring Hurricane Vance (Category 1)

No official watch or warning is in effect in the current NHC data.

Hurricane Vance has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is moving NNW at 5 mph.

Gradual weakening is forecast the next couple of days.

Hurricane · Cat 1 Vance is currently being tracked. The current NHC outlook is monitoring 1 other area for possible development. That area's formation chances are 40% through 48 hours and 50% through seven days.

NHC outlook updated: Oct 24, 11:00 PM GMT-7

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Regional Storm Tracker

Trop. Depr.Tropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurr.Post Tropical

Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind and pressureNOAA/NESDIS satellite imagery. Visualization by BajaStorms.

No official watch/warning

Hurricane Vance (Cat 1)

85mphWeakening

Max sustained winds

Movement: NNW 5 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb

Storm center distance to BCS

Current: 729 mi
Closest observed: 10/25/26 · 729 mi
Closest forecast: 10/29/26 · 238 mi

Storm center distance to mainland Mexico

Current: 257 mi
Closest observed: 10/25/26 · 257 mi
Closest forecast: 10/29/26 · 70 mi

Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.

Vance advisory: Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7

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Vance is currently a Category 1 hurricane. Understand storm classifications.

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What changed since the last update

Situation improving

Vance weakened from 90 mph to 85 mph.

Official Cone & Model Guidance

Official NHC forecast cone and track for Vance; issue time shown in image — NHC Forecast ConeNHC Forecast Cone—

Interactive GuidanceInteractive Model Guidance TracksOct 24, 11:00 PM GMT-7

Tap a button to compare possible storm paths.Click a track or its button to highlight it and compare the forecasts.Models offer different views of the storm’s future path.Selected global and hurricane models, plus combined forecasts, show possible storm paths.

Up to 5 days ahead.Forecasts up to 5 days ahead.NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗

Local MonitoringNew: favorites

Baja California Sur

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Cabo San Lucas

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Storms being monitored

76°Clear sky90° · 76°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 731 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

San José del Cabo

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Storms being monitored

74°Clear sky87° · 74°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 733 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Todos Santos

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Storms being monitored

74°Clear sky87° · 73°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 773 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

La Paz

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Storms being monitored

72°Clear sky86° · 70°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 816 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

East CapeLos Barriles

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Storms being monitored

77°Mainly clear86° · 76°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 767 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Loreto

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Storms being monitored

74°Clear sky85° · 73°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 959 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 2:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Mainland Mexico

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Now covering 12 cities in mainland Mexico’s coastal region.

Salina Cruz

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Storms being monitored

79°Overcast91° · 78°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 562 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Puerto Escondido

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Storms being monitored

72°Overcast86° · 72°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 436 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Acapulco

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Storms being monitored

73°Overcast87° · 73°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 291 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Zihuatanejo

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Storms being monitored

75°Light drizzle82° · 75°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 262 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Lázaro Cárdenas

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Storms being monitored

74°Light drizzle80° · 74°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 265 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Manzanillo

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Storms being monitored

76°Overcast85° · 76°

Monitoring Hurricane Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 339 mi from here (position at Oct 25, 3:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

BajaStorms organizes official storm, watch, and warning information. It does not issue independent weather warnings.

Weather by Open-Meteo and MET Norway

Satellite & Storm Maps

NOAA GOES-19 · GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Latest satelliteSource ↗

Latest satellite: Shows cloud structure across Baja and the Eastern Pacific. Use the loop to watch systems organize, weaken, or move closer to the region.

NOAA GOES-19 · Infrared - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — InfraredSource ↗

Infrared: Highlights the coldest cloud tops, which mark the strongest thunderstorms. Use the loop to see where storms build or weaken over recent hours.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific GeoColorSource ↗

Full Pacific GeoColor: Covers the wider eastern Pacific so distant tropical systems remain visible before they enter the tighter Baja sector.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific storm tops - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific storm topsSource ↗

Full Pacific storm tops: Combines visible and infrared detail across the full Pacific sector, making deep convection easier to spot far west of Baja.

Tropical Weather Outlook and Discussion

7-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

7-day outlook graphic unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

2-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

2-day tropical outlook satellite image unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

Tropical Weather Outlook Source ↗

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Vance, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

NOAA NHCIssued 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion Source ↗

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.4W at 25/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft or 9.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm in the NE semicircle and 75 nm in the SW semicircle. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest. This slow north-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast the next couple of days. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N74W in the Caribbean Sea to across Panama at 08N81W to 10N96W SE of Hurricane Vance. It resumes SW of Vance from 08N113W to 05N135W. The ITCZ extends from 05N135W to 07N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 10N between 77W and 85W, from 03N to 10N between 85W and 93W, from 03N to 15N between 93W and 98W, within 04N118W to 13N99W to 07N99W to 02N118W to 04N118W, from 10N to 12N between 111W and 115W, and from 12N to 15N between 121W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this afternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N 105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California Norte during the early part of the week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of moderate to fresh NE-E winds is located from 14N to 19N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 116W and 130W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters along with moderate seas, except locally rough S of the Equator and E of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this afternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N 105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just northwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting this afternoon and into the early part of the week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south-central waters by the middle of the week, building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 056N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night, lingering through at least Thu night.

NOAA NHCIssued 1005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion

The National Hurricane Center's full technical discussion of conditions across the eastern Pacific - tropical waves, convection, and any systems being watched. Issued several times daily.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Gulf of California SSTSource ↗

Sea temperature image unavailable. Open the official source.

NOAA / NESDIS OSPODate shown on chart

Warm water is the fuel for tropical storms. Hurricanes generally need sea-surface temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) to form and strengthen., so warmer water along Mexico’s Pacific coast is worth watching.

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Monitoring Hurricane Vance (Category 1)