Past storm
Remnant Low Polo
Final NHC advisoryNHC issued its final advisory for Polo. The final official forecast graphic, interactive track, wind animation based on NOAA data, and recent official advisories are preserved below.
Highest classification reached: Category 5 HurricaneSep 20–30, 2026
Polo advisory updated:
Key Facts
- Type
- Remnant Low
- Max sustained wind
- 35 mph
- Min pressure
- 996 mb
- Movement
- NE 23 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 333 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 0 mi
- Type
- Remnant Low
- Max sustained wind
- 35 mph
- Min pressure
- 996 mb
- Movement
- NE 23 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 333 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 0 mi
Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.
Historical Track
PoloRemnant LowMax wind35 mph
Map sources: NHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind. Visualization by BajaStorms.
Official Graphics
BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗
Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast
Advisory Timeline
Advisory Timeline #38
POLO DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Sep 29 the center of Polo was located near 30.5, -108.0 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Official NHC advisory text
...POLO DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Sep 29 the center of Polo was located near 30.5, -108.0 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #37A
Polo rapidly weakening over northwestern Mexico. Heavy rains continue.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 500 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 108.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is expected to dissipate within the next several hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are still occurring well inland over northwestern Mexico. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #37
Polo weakens to a tropical storm as it moves farther inland.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL CCA TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 37...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected the Next Advisory section ...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 109.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings and watches. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an additional increase in forward speed through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Polo will cross northwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening before dissipating. The remnants of Polo should continue quickly northeastward, passing over southern New Mexico and far western Texas late tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves farther inland, and the surface circulation is expected to dissipate tonight. However, the remnants of Polo are likely bring gusty winds to portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas late tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo and will continue spread northeastward tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #36A
Polo makes landfall a little east of guaymas Mexico.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 1100 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO MAKES LANDFALL A LITTLE EAST OF GUAYMAS MEXICO... ...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 110.6W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the east coast of Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located just inland over the Mexican state of Sonora near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 110.6 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today. On the forecast track, will move farther inland over the southern portion of the state of Sonora this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The Mexican Navy weather station in Guaymas recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (72 kn/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area for a few more hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #36
Polo about to make landfall near guaymas Mexico. Conditions deteriorating in the landfall area.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GUAYMAS MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN THE LANDFALL AREA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the west coast of Baja California Sur. The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia, and has discontinued all other watches and warnings on the east coast of Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 110.9 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will move inland over southern Sonora near Guaymas during the next few hours and cross portions of northwestern Mexico this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as the center crosses northwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The Mexican Navy automated station in Guaymas recently reported a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area during the next few hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC