Tropical Storm Polo
No official Baja watch/warningNo official Baja watch or warning is in effect in the current NHC data.
Tropical Storm Polo has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving NE at 8 mph. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days.
Polo advisory updated:
Key Facts
- Type
- Tropical Storm
- Max sustained wind
- 45 mph
- Min pressure
- 1003 mb
- Movement
- NE 8 mph
- Distance to BCS
- 647 mi
- Type
- Tropical Storm
- Max sustained wind
- 45 mph
- Min pressure
- 1003 mb
- Movement
- NE 8 mph
- Distance to BCS
- 647 mi
Polo Storm Tracker
Polo | Tropical Storm | Max wind 45 mphPolo | Type Tropical Storm | Max sustained wind 45 mph
DepressionTropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurricane
Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind. Visualization by BajaStorms.
Official Graphics
BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗
Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast
Advisory Timeline
Advisory Timeline #3
Polo expected to rapidly intensify.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...POLO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 103.8W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.8 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #2
Depression becomes tropical storm Polo. Forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM POLO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 104.6W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.6 West. Polo is now moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn toward the north and northwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next few days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane by the middle part of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #1
New tropical depression develops to the south of Mexico.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 104.9W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and northwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seventeen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC