Past storm
Remnant Low Rachel
Final NHC advisoryNHC issued its final advisory for Rachel. The final official forecast graphic, interactive track, wind animation based on NOAA data, and recent official advisories are preserved below.
Highest classification reached: Category 3 HurricaneSep 27, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026
Rachel advisory updated:
Key Facts
- Type
- Remnant Low
- Max sustained wind
- 35 mph
- Min pressure
- 994 mb
- Movement
- NNE 29 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 539 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 228 mi
- Type
- Remnant Low
- Max sustained wind
- 35 mph
- Min pressure
- 994 mb
- Movement
- NNE 29 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 539 mi
- Center to Mainland
- 228 mi
Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.
Historical Track
RachelRemnant LowMax wind35 mph
Map sources: NHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind. Visualization by BajaStorms.
Official Graphics
BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗
Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast
Advisory Timeline
Advisory Timeline #58
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Remnants Of Rachel Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 ...REMNANTS OF RACHEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 114.6W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For more information, Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rachel were located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 114.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect across the southwestern United States. Gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are spreading over interior portions of the southwestern United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, today and tomorrow. For more information, Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rachel and its associated moisture will bring total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest United States through today. This will continue to lead to the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information, Please consult products from your local weather office at https://www.weather.gov/ Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #57A
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 57A
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 57A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...RACHEL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 115.4W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM N OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border, and the Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis and northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 115.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today as Rachel moves farther inland over the southwest United States. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel should continue to weaken and dissipate later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring over portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will continue for the next few hours. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are spreading over interior portions of the southwestern United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, today and tomorrow. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to portions of northern Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #57
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 57
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...RACHEL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 116.1W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Watch for the southern California coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 116.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to persist today as Rachel moves farther inland. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel should weaken quickly this morning and dissipate by this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions occuring over portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area will continue into this morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico today. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are spreading over interior portions of the southwestern United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, today and tomrrow. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to portions of northern Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Blake NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #56A
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 56A
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 56A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ....HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 116.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h), and this motion is expected to persist as Rachel moves farther inland over northern Baja California tonight. Rachel is forecast to dissipate on Sunday over the southwestern United States. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel should weaken quickly by Sunday morning and dissipate by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring over portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and will continue into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico beginning tonight into early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight through early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California this weekend. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Blake NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC