Hurricane Rachel (Cat 1)
No official Baja watch/warningNo official Baja watch or warning is in effect in the current NHC data.
Hurricane Rachel has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is moving NW at 10 mph. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so.
Regional NHC advisory:
Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Rachel advisory updated:
Key Facts
- Type
- Hurricane (Cat 1)
- Max sustained wind
- 85 mph
- Min pressure
- 979 mb
- Movement
- NW 10 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 382 mi
- Type
- Hurricane (Cat 1)
- Max sustained wind
- 85 mph
- Min pressure
- 979 mb
- Movement
- NW 10 mph
- Storm center to BCS
- 382 mi
Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.
Rachel Storm Tracker
DepressionTropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurricane
Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind. Visualization by BajaStorms.
Official Graphics
BajaStorms graphicSource: NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗
Constructed guidance: Not the official NHC forecast
Advisory Timeline
Advisory Timeline #13A
Rachel continues moving northwestward. Could become a major hurricane in a day or so.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 500 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 ...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 107.6W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #13
Rachel is strengthening. Could become a major hurricane in a day or so.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 ...RACHEL IS STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 107.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.2 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #12A
Rachel becomes a hurricane.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.8W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.8 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Rachel is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later tonight into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #12
Rachel expected to become a hurricane soon.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 106.6W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday and a major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The Manzanillo International Airport (MMZO) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later tonight into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #11A
Rachel forecast to become a major hurricane later this week. Gusty winds spreading along the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 600 PM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... ...GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 106.3W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 106.3 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. Manzanillo International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the warning area and will continue tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #11
Rachel near hurricane strength. Now forecast to become a major hurricane.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 300 PM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Aircraft data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #10A
Rachel holding steady south of southwestern Mexico.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 1200 PM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL HOLDING STEADY SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 105.1W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 105.1 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #10
Rachel slightly stronger.
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 900 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 105.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 105.0 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #9A
Tropical Storm Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 600 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 104.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.8 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC
Advisory Timeline #9
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 9
Official NHC advisory text
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 300 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 104.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 104.3 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Source: NOAA / NHC